A “third guess” to succeed
You have to be able to third guess for success.
Life has changed irrevocably for the immediate future. 3 years or more? Even if the current pandemic of COVID-19 finds a reliable test, proven vaccine, quality treatment and can prevent death it will take time to reach 7 billion globally to reach any degree of comfort.
And then we could have another corona virus. Or worse, pandemic with deeper penetration, quicker spread and longer-term fatality — all in its own best interest, and definitely not yours.
So if you are age 40 or over, it will take perhaps a decade (or never) back to the good old days of late 2019.
FIRST guess
Most of us deal with everyone else in the first person. We take what is said at face value. We know what they mean. It is based on facts. They have seen it, read it, heard about it themselves from reliable sources or inside sources. It is based on science, observable, audible, repeatable, reliable, perhaps with an integrity co-efficient. You trust, therefore this is not really a guess at all.
SECOND guess
Second guess means, we are not certain of what they meant. Is it true? White lies? The means justify the end? Just Public relations? If you are in sales, anything you say is always taken with a pinch of salt. If you are a buyer, you are skeptical about anyone making any sentence, without assuming it is some form of a pitch.
Given digital media, there should be skepticism of anything you see or hear. Just understand where Donald Trump — a politician — is coming from, when he says, Don’t believe what you hear, don’t believe what you see, when he meets his adoring fans at his rallies. Any communication has a bias. Many biases. The biases of the sender matched only by the biases of the receiver. The NOISE in between is deafening. It seems to be more a technical term from electronics, but NOISE in the MEDIA has become very significant. Even in simple terms, when you call someone on the mobile, where is the other person now? Can you say for sure? Is that person bluffing? Not where he or she is saying where they are now? Do you listen to background noises to determine where exactly they maybe?
We were always skeptical of somethings. When we see “organic” vegetables and fruits, we have definitely been skeptical of some brands, some vendors, some persons claims. Medical test results most often warrant a second opinion, even good doctors would suggest this be referred to a specialist. All those vaccines for your baby? There is rising skepticism about them. Will your auto-pilot plane, or self-driving car have a software glitch?
In a realistic world we were mostly second guessing almost everyone but close family and friends. Second guessing was second to human nature.
THIRD guess
Given the pandemonium of the pandemic, lockdown, loss of millions of jobs, drop in percentages of country GDP, second wave of the COIVD-19 each and every person on planet earth has become a bit more fearful, a bit less complacent, has lost something, is a bit more selfish, less likely to co-operate, does not think altruistically and may even be inclined to be more vindictive. Yes, mind altering behaviour has happened to every human being on planet earth. Being paranoid can keep you safe and alive.
Distrust in a stranger is now totally valid. Any public space with other persons in it is a threat. More so if it is indoors or in a closed space. What if a person coughs alarmingly in a bus? Or a theatre? Sports spectator collapses while cheering her team, would you help?
In business, dealing with anyone, a vendor, a customer, a government official or even a President, is he thinking of himself? Or his enterprise? Has he changed in this new pandemic economy? Is he more selfish? Is his or her word less reliable? Even a signed legal contract may not hold up in court with the high level of Government interference and policy changes.
The Global Multi National Corporation says touchless technology, and contact less delivery of goods and food, can we trust it? How contact less is contact-less?
Does the person sitting across my table, at an office as a customer or supplier, across a service desk, in a restaurant … has she or he been tested? Has he already had COVID-19 and recovered? Is he immune? Am I immune? Is either of us asymptomatic, or whatever, carrying viruses that we have not clue about? Back to a full range of second guesses, before we now start a third guess.
You have to “third guess” every line of communication, just as much the other person is going to “third guess” every line of your communication.
